Is inflation going down in 2023?

2023 © Wikiask
Main topic: Humanities
Other topics: Inflation, U.S.
Short answer: U.S. inflation is expected to continue to slow down. As of August 2022, CPI inflation is at 8.5%, while consumer expectations, business expectations, and the 1-year breakeven rate are 5.7%, 3.3%, and 2.1%, respectively.

There are two major ways to estimate future inflation: via surveys and via markets.

1-year consumer inflation expectation of 5.7%[edit]

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes the Survey of Consumer Expectations on a monthly basis.[1] For August 2022, the median 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations fell from 6.2% in July to 5.7% in August and from 3.2% to 2.8%, respectively. [2]

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations.
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations.

1-year business inflation expectation of 3.3%[edit]

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes the Business Inflation Expectations survey (BIE). The 1-year inflation expectation fell from 3.5% in August 2022 to 3.3% in September 2022. [3]

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Business Inflation Expectations survey (BIE).

1-year breakeven rate of 2.1%[edit]

Some economists also estimate inflation expectation by subtracting the yield on the inflation-adjusted 1-year Government note (commonly known as TIPS) from the yield on the nominal 1-year Government note. As of September 23, 2022, the 1-year nominal note yields 4.1%[4] and the inflation-adjusted note yields 2.0%[5], leading to 1-year inflation expectations (in this case, known as the breakeven rate) of around 2.1%.

References[edit]

  1. "An Overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations" (PDF). September 23, 2022.
  2. "Inflation and Home Price Expectations Decline Further - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK". www.newyorkfed.org. Retrieved 2022-09-23.
  3. "Business Inflation Expectations". www.atlantafed.org. Retrieved 2022-09-23.
  4. "Market Data". WSJ. Retrieved 2022-09-23.
  5. "TIPS". WSJ. Retrieved 2022-09-23.